Asofondos, union of private pensions (AFP), also came up against the criticism made by the Ministry of Finance funds this week, due to the impact of the pension reform, if the project is approved as it is, because according to the accounts of some unions and experts, this would raise the pension liability by 224 percent as a proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP), as the union said on Thursday of the previous week.
(Also read: Pensions and deficit: Anif says that the Government does not take new subsidies into account)
For the Government, these calculations «have conceptual and methodological flaws», because according to the estimates of the Treasury, their accounts show the opposite, that is, that said liability, with the proposed reform, is reduced from 67.5 percent, in a scenario without reform, to 55.2 percent of GDP.
He explains that these large differences between the official accounts and those of these experts occur because «they do not include all the income that would be available in the contributory and semi-contributory pillars to pay the expenses derived from the reform. Nor does it seem to accurately reflect the reduction achieved by the pillar scheme of the subsidies for high pensions”.
(You may also be interested in: The biggest blow of the pension will be for young people: Asofondos)
However, from Asofondos they are convinced that their accounts are correct, in addition, because they were made taking into account what is embodied in the bill that was filed in the Congress of the Republic for its analysis, discussion and approval.
Daniel Wills, technical vice president of said association, They said that they made their calculations with great judgment and rigor, which is why they defend and maintain them. «We are convinced that the figures are correct. From the outset there are observations, the Government says that the solidarity pillar cannot be included, but it must be paid for, it is part of the cost of the law and that is why we include it in our projections , the same happens with the semi-contributory that we also took into account because we believe that it is part of the cost of the law,» says the analyst.
He added that it is difficult to understand that pension liabilities go down in the future, especially considering that the vast majority of people are going to move to Colpensions and this offers a greater benefit than the money that is going to be transferred from private funds (AFP) could cover, so that gap will have to be covered.
«When one is multiplied by the number of people who will move, that yields a very important figure, that is where our calculations start from and that is how they are built.
We are trying to understand the government figures,» Wills insists.
When referring to the savings that would be generated in the public regimethe expert says that there is none, it will be much less than what is expected, which is why he warns that it sounds strange to say that there is more money.
«Today money is saved entirely in private funds, where it also generates profitability and in a reform scenario less would be saved. It is rare that it is said that there is more money, when it is not for savings funding. But we do not fully understand how this mechanism will work, everything points to less savings than there are today than would have been a sin to reform,» he pointed out, noting that the figures are on the table to feed the discussion of the reform.
ANif position
This week the Anif economic studies center also argued the figures of the impact that the pension reform had according to their estimates and that they suggest that the pension liability would skyrocket between 230 and 249 percent of GDP by 2070 with this initiative.
He pointed out that in his calculations the considerations that, according to the Treasury, were not included in his accounts were taken into account. For example, regarding Pilar Solidario, do consider that it is a debt because that transfer will be received and will continue to be received by people who will not be able to obtain their pension, and to the extent that the labor market problems continue, this will be an expense to consider a future
But where there seems to be the greatest difference between the government and analysts is in the Contributive Pillar in the Premium Media component. In the center of economic studies they say that, although they do not know the details of the calculations, the Government has an impact on the liabilities of a figure in net present value (NPV) close to 70 points, while for them one that exceeds the 120 percent of GDP.
“This difference arises, we believe, from the fact that the Government includes in its calculations all the savings up to 3 minimum wages of the people who are currently in the Individual Savings with Solidarity Regime (Rais). But he does not consider that pensions of up to 3 minimum wages will also subsidize these people once, and that is what increases the deficit,” Anif said.
* EL TIEMPO is part of a conglomerate of companies to which an AFP belongs.