The Phenomenon of El Niño has between 89 and 94 percent probability of development for the second half of the yearaccording to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center.
This implies a significant increase in the country’s temperatures and water shortages in some of its regions, which in turn, according to the Colombian Security Council (CCS), It will lead the Colombian economy to face losses of more than 3.7 trillion in labor productivity.
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To determine this figure, the entity took as a reference the 2019 analysis carried out by the World Bank, which measured the impact of droughts on the hours worked and earnings of workers in the formal and informal sectors in the main cities of Latin America, including 22 in Colombia.
As a first finding, we found that the increase in temperature generated mental or physical fatigue, nausea, rapid heart rate and other symptoms. Also, high temperatures can affect concentration, coordination and decision making.
For this reason and based on these affectations, the study stated that theDrought periods produced a 0.6 percent decrease in working hours for formal workers. On the other hand, in the informal sector the fall was worse, with 4.5 percent. This generated a loss of 6.4 percent in their monthly income.
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The informal worker is the most affected in periods of drought.
Taking this information into account and for the Colombian case, the Council took data from the Fiscal Observatory of the Javeriana University on the average monthly salary of the formal and informal sector; this is 2,098,239 pesos and 901,246respectively.
In addition, it used the data on the employed population in April 2023 from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane); 6,734,431 formal workers and 4,996,626 informal.
Thus, they estimated that the informally employed population would stop receiving 2.88 billion pesos, while the losses for the formal sector would reach 838 billion; that is, a total of more than 3.7 trillion pesos.
From the entity they point out that the impact could be even greater, since the analysis only included the main cities of the country, which obviously leaves out small and medium-sized territories.
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The informally employed population would stop receiving 2.88 billion pesos.
Vanexa Romero/El Tiempo
is cause for concern as it further hinders efforts to reduce poverty
“The 6.4 percent reduction in the labor income of informal workers during droughts is cause for concern as it makes efforts to reduce poverty even more difficult, especially in the current context,” says Adriana Solano Luque, executive president of the Colombian Security Council.
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The occupations that will be most affected
The entity also highlights that although the affectations are for workers from different sectors, there are some occupations that face higher risks due to the physical intensity they require or to the fact of being interpreted in the open air.
«Some examples include agriculture, environmental services, construction, waste collection, transport and tourism, many of which concentrate a large proportion of informal labor,» they explain in a statement.
The same is true in the formal sector. Those workers who are in closed spaces such as factories and even offices will face risks if temperature levels are not properly controlled.
This implies that companies could experience a labor shortage due to badly conditioned areas where people are not willing to work for the current salary they earn, according to the entity.
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Outdoor activities are the most impacted by El Niño.
Juan Bonilla/ WEATHER
A call to adaptation
It is essential to adapt to protect the health of workers
Taking this whole scenario into account, the CCS points out that it is important to understand the dynamics of this phenomenon in order to protect the economy and the health of workers.
“Understanding the possible impacts of the arrival of the El Niño Phenomenon will allow us to generate timely actions. It is essential to adapt to protect the health of workers. Doing so is not only ethical, but also better for productivity and the work environment.”, highlights Adriana Solano.
In addition, they will point out some aspects that must be taken into account to adapt precisely to climate change. Among these are the planning of operations, identification of emerging risks, redesign of products and more sustainable production and the development of financial or risk transfer instruments that make it possible to finance risk reduction processes.
JUAN DAVID CANO LOPERA
School of Multimedia Journalism EL TIEMPO
ECONOMY WRITING
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